DEXIA: Structural problems to be resolved – but how?

The Board of Directors of Dexia (1,12 EUR, -13,85%) yesterday held a meeting to decide about the fate of Dexia. The Board asked the CEO, in consultation with all relevant governments and supervisory authorities, to prepare the necessary measures to resolve the structural problems penalising the Group’s operational activities.

Dexia today still had to deal with two major problems:
- assuring the funding for its run-off commitments which given high funding cost, have a negative carry;
- assuring the funding of Crédit Local de France, the French public finance unit which for its fundingrelies on Dexia’s retail funding and market funding.

The scenario most heard of is the creation of a “bad bank” in which all run-off commitments are put and where funding of the entity would be guaranteed by the Belgian and French Government. At the end of June 2011, Dexia had € 95.3bn of bonds in run-off, a € 7.4bn Financial Products portfolio in run-off (almost entirely sold in July) and € 22.2bn of PWB run-off commitments o/w € 10.8bn undrawn.

For the French entity CLF a local solution (link it with Banque Postale & CDC through the creation of a local public bank?) seems the most feasible and likely scenario.
The Belgian retail bank, Dexia Asset Management (including Investor Services?) and Denizbank Turkey would potentially be put up for sale.

Our View:
The big question is: if Dexia Group is torn apart, what will happen with the proceeds from the sale of the operating entities and how will the funding/guarantees of the bad bank be structured?

The experience with Fortis and the creation of Royal Park Investments (RPI) has shown that a combined French & Belgian guaranteed funding of the entity and with sufficient equity, is a viable scenario. There are however two caveats: the size of the “bad bank” would be five times that of RPI and would even afterits creation potentially still have a negative carry for a prolonged period.

The “necessary measures to be taken” would also have to take into consideration the impact it could have on the fate of Dexia’s Belgian shareholders Holding Communal and Ethias, as well as the budgetary constraints of Belgium and France.

We are unable at this stage to determine what would be left for Dexia shareholders.